What's up guys,

 

I had some more tourney success yesterday. I finished 4th in the $55 40k GTD at Stars, winning $3,7k. I also won a small-field $55 6max tournament at Everest and got $1150 for that. Apart from those it was a pretty slow night, but a +5k night all the same.

 

Here's a bad beat and three interesting hands:

 

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5359038 Stars Daily 40k, 250/5000 players left. That's a pretty sick knockout hand.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5359157 $55 40k: This is exactly why flatting big pairs is often your best option.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5358886 Stars Daily 40k: One of the sickest lines I have taken possibly ever

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5359322 I rarely fold a set on a dry board, but here it was mandatory.

 

And a couple of really sick hands my HEM managed to miss:


25€ rebuy final table, Hero is 2/9 in chips.

The FT just started. Standard payouts, 8k for first. This is the first tournament where I've played with villain, but we've been in the same table for like 200 hands. Based on those I'm sure we both think the other one is thinking. I haven't been superactive as I've had a midstack all tournament through, just standard 18/15 or whatever. He's been playing similar, and he only just got his big stack and hasn't been doing aggro stuff with it yet. The opener is likely on tilt as he's lost a ton of chips recently. I think Villain thinks I iso something like 88+ AJ+ here (everyone in this network is nitty and people's 3bet standards are waaaaay tighter than at stars/ftp, except mine of course).

Can I fold QQ 40BB deep here given ICM? And before you say no, look at everyone's stacks.

Prima Network No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t4000.00/t8000.00 Blinds, t1000 ante - 10 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+1: t74500.00
UTG+2: t134460.50
MP1: t227935.72
MP2: t142166.88
MP3: t114127.28
CO: t106642.16
Hero (BTN): t330091.00
SB: t512254.46
BB: t48285.00
UTG: t77537.00

Pre Flop: (t12000) Hero is BTN with Q Q
6 folds, CO raises to t24000, Hero raises to t64000, SB raises to t444444, 2 folds, Hero?

After looking at some calculations made by Furo at the the 2+2 forums, it turns out this is actually a very, very, very, veeeeeeeeeeeeeery marginal fold.

Here are the ICM values for everyone:

Player 1 254.269 224.256 191.486 183.997 184.853 179.997 179.176 172.597 163.673 - 1734.304
Player 2 244.298 215.809 184.651 177.908 179.399 175.607 176.181 171.934 167.929 - 1693.717
Player 3 443.725 378.896 310.194 281.426 260.594 225.689 189.489 141.321 89.979 - 2321.313
Player 4 754.499 606.088 455.998 366.544 289.803 206.633 137.106 76.551 33.639 - 2926.860
Player 5 468.653 398.382 324.186 291.637 266.756 227.164 186.555 135.207 82.876 - 2381.417
Player 6 375.587 324.589 269.987 250.409 239.361 216.912 193.920 157.472 112.670 - 2140.907
Player 7 350.659 304.346 254.570 237.928 229.933 211.702 193.731 162.720 122.221 - 2067.810
Player 8 1093.524 809.735 541.684 380.341 259.275 156.952 86.447 38.732 13.004 - 3379.692
Player 9 1685.158 1021.313 565.231 328.639 183.985 89.874 38.859 13.151 03.175 - 3929.385
Player 10 129.628 116.587 102.014 101.172 106.040 109.470 118.536 130.315 160.834 - 1074.596

Current ICM Equity before 3betting: €3380
ICM Equity with 3bet/fold: €3138
call&win: €4388
call&lose: €950

bubble factor: 3138-950 / 4388-3138 = 2188 / 1250 or 1.75
pod odds: ~265k to win ~440k or 1.66:1
$EV odds: 1.66/1.75 -> 0.95:1 ~51.2% needed

 

So, we need 51,2% to call. IMO the actual number is a bit bigger, as I'm better than any of these players and I can still do a lot of stuff with my stack if I fold, but if I shove and lose I obviously can't. Here's a standard pokerstove calculation:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.366% 45.79% 01.58% 164644764 5675268.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 52.634% 51.06% 01.58% 183588540 5675268.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

 

We only have 47%, so we should fold.


Deep in $55 40k GTD:

HEM lost the one hand I was interested in posting from this tournament.

There are like 23/1000 players left, 9k for winner so it's a biggie. I've been really active preflop, but haven't had to show down any bluffs. My stats for the last hour or so would be close to 30/25. Villain has been pretty quiet, not supernitty quiet but he seems to be scared money quite a bit. I OPR'd him and his abi is $10 and he's a marginal winner at those stakes. He's 3bet once when he had AK and has 3x'd his good hands or just folded. I doubt he's stolen a blind once lately.

On to the hand... avg is 70k, me and villain both have 100k.

8-handed, 1500/3000/300 level, Hero (HJ) raises to 7200 with 62, 3 folds, Villain calls on the BB.

Flop AJ7 (18900)
Villain checks, Hero bets 11200, Villain calls

Turn 6 (41300)
Villain checks, Hero checks

River Q (41300)
Villain checks, Hero bets 81000 and is all-in, Villain has requested TIME


Thoughts? He was so straightforward I'm almost certain he'd raise flop with 2p or set, and once he checks the river I think his whole range consists of weak made hands that might Hero call a standard bet but can't ever call a shove. And yes, I'm trying to get him to fold an ace.